Parliamentary elections, November 2021: What happened at the polling stations at risk?

You can download the analysis from here.

  • The tendency for polling stations at risk to register a more pronounced decline in turnout
    compared to other polling stations recorded in the July 2021 parliamentary elections has persisted. In places, this trend is easier to observe, but there are provinces and municipalities that show deviations from the overall picture.
  • The biggest drop in the turnout at polling stations at risk was registered in the electoral districts (ED) of Stara Zagora, Varna, Burgas and Sliven.
    In ED13 Pazardzhik the turnout at polling stations at risk increased.
    In the municipalities of Velingrad, Levski and Valchedram, activity at polling stations also
    increased.
  • In the municipalities of Burgas and Ruse, the decline in turnout at polling sections at risk was
    significantly more pronounced than the average decline in turnout in the municipality.
  • In other municipalities, where the share of potential purchased and controlled votes is significant, such as Kotel, Tervel, Hitrino, Kirkovo and Sungulare, the turnout at polling stations at risk dropped by a percentage in keeping with the average decline in the municipality.
    The percentage of municipalities where the share of potentially purchased or controlled votes
    from the total vote in the municipality is below 1% increased significantly.
  • The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) Party retained the lead in the proportion of
    votes received in polling stations at risk, with a relatively small loss in polling stations at risk
    compared to the July election. The political party Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) remains in second place on the basis of this indicator, but recorded significant losses at polling stations at risk. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), the We Continue the
    Change party, and Democratic Bulgaria coalition come in next on the basis of this indicator of
    their share of votes at risk.
  • MRF, the National Union of the Right, and the BSP are at the top in terms of share of votes for
    the party cast in at-risk polling stations. GERB, There is Such a People (ITN) and We Continue
    the Change Party have lower percentages on the basis of this indicator.
  • In 15 localities, the share of votes cast in mobile ballot boxes is over 25 %, indicating a potentially new mechanism for controlling the vote. However, the effect of such schemes on the results of the parliamentary elections is marginal.

    This analysis was published with the support of the Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung Rule of Law – South East Europe Programme. The content of this publication represents exclusive responsibility of its authors and does not necessarily represent the opinion of the Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung.

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